Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn

Abstract

The flooding in South Yorkshire in the United Kingdom (UK) in autumn 2019 saw one fatality, at least 500 properties flooded and 1 200 households evacuated. The worst of the flooding occurred after very high 24-h rainfall totals of up to 82 mm fell on already saturated ground. This followed very high 24-h rainfall totals in the region just two weeks earlier of up to just under 50 mm. In the light of anthropogenic climate change, it is expected that extreme rainfall events are set to become more intense as a result of increased global mean temperatures and the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Here we investigate the change in risk of such extreme rainfall events in the UK in autumn using a new index R50mm_OND, representing the mean number of daily precipitation totals in excess of 50 mm in October–December each year. Using high resolution regional model datasets and observations we show that extreme rainfall totals for the UK are increasing exponentially as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Observations show that the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the form of R50mm_OND has already increased by 60% (95% CI: 44–76) in the UK between the beginning of the 20th and 21st centuries. R50mm_OND is projected to increase even further between 2019 and 2080, by 85% (95% CI: 73–97) according to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario of anthropogenic emissions. While higher resolution models (12 km spatial resolution) were able to capture the observed changes, lower resolution models were not. This underlines the importance of high-resolution models for modelling extreme precipitation seen in late autumn and early winter, not just for convective rainfall in the summer. A more specific analysis of the November 2019 event looked at the mean of the two highest daily precipitation totals in October–November in the South Yorkshire region. This found a long-term shift to higher daily rainfall totals for this mean with an increase in intensity of the top 10% of events, suggesting that the South Yorkshire region in autumn is more at risk of flooding in the future without effective adaptation measures.