Incorporating socio-hydrological contexts for systemic drought vulnerability in forested cold climates - a conceptual framework.

Abstract

In a changing climate, drought risk and vulnerability assessments are becoming increasingly important. Following the global call for proactive drought risk management, drought vulnerability assessments are progressively taking its stage in the drought research community. As the manifestation of drought vulnerability is dependent on the social, ecological and hydroclimatic context in which it occurs, identifying vulnerability factors relevant for specific climatological and ecological regions may improve the quality of vulnerability assessments. Meanwhile, a holistic overview of factors affecting vulnerability in polar and cold climates is currently lacking, although recent events (such as the 2018 European drought affecting large parts of Scandinavia) have reminded us that droughts are a prevalent risk even in colder climate zones. These regions are home to large socio-hydrological systems including urban areas, energy systems, agricultural practices, and the boreal forest. By conducting an interdisciplinary systematic literature review, the manifestation and conceptualization of drought vulnerability was identified for forested ecoregions in the Köppen-Geiger D and E climates. Vulnerability factors, as described by several scientific disciplines, were identified and combined into a conceptual framework for drought vulnerability in the study region. The results demonstrate the wide range of conceptualizations that exist for assessing drought vulnerability, the key sectors studied in the region, as well as the thematic differences between sectors such as forestry, water supply and agriculture. The developed conceptual framework adopts a novel approach, categorising vulnerability factors by their location in a socio-hydrological system, and their relation to blue or green water sources. This allows for identification of systemic vulnerability patterns for different drought types as well as vulnerability factors that may be universal for these socio-hydrological systems independent of the drought type they are exposed to. The results provide new insights into regional differences in drought vulnerability and a base for stakeholders performing proactive drought risk assessments in the study region.