Drought Vulnerability Concepts and User-Endorsed Factors in Forested Ecoregions in Cold and Continental Climates

Abstract

In a changing climate, the assessments of drought risk and vulnerability are becoming increasingly important. Responding to the global call for a proactive approach to drought risk management, there is now a growing emphasis on drought vulnerability assessments within the drought research community. Since the manifestation of drought vulnerability depends on the social, ecological, and hydroclimatic context in which it unfolds, recognizing vulnerability factors specific to particular climatological and ecological regions could enhance the accuracy and reliability of vulnerability assessments. However, a holistic overview of factors affecting vulnerability in polar and cold climates is currently lacking, although these regions accommodate extensive socio-hydrological systems, encompassing urban areas, energy infrastructures, agricultural practices, and vast boreal forests. Through an interdisciplinary and systematic exploration of existing literature, we identified the manifestation and conceptualization of drought vulnerability for forested ecoregions in the Köppen–Geiger D and E climates. Factors contributing to vulnerability, as delineated by several scientific disciplines, were identified and synthesized into a novel conceptual framework that categorizes vulnerability factors by their location in a socio-hydrological system, and their relation to blue or green water sources (Stenfors et al., 2023). To further assess their relative importance in cold and continental climates, a survey with more than 100 respondents from various sectors (e.g., agriculture, forestry, energy, water supply, environment, etc.) and different governance levels was conducted to validate and rank the identified factors and measurable indicators. Thus, we provide a list of user-endorsed drought vulnerability factors and corresponding indicators, which allows for identification of systemic vulnerability patterns, providing new insights into regional differences in drought vulnerability and a base for stakeholders performing proactive drought risk assessments in the study region. Reference: Stenfors E, Blicharska M, Grabs T, Teutschbein C. 2023. Droughts in forested ecoregions in cold and continental climates: A review of vulnerability concepts and factors in socio-hydrological systems. WIREs Water: e1692 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1692