Incorporating scarcity into footprints reveals diverse supply chain hotspots for global fossil fuel management

Abstract

In the current context of energy and geopolitical crises, the sustainable supply and use of energy play a critical role in responding to climate change and the global transformation towards a low-carbon economy. The supply-chain risks of fossil fuels (i.e., raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas) are closely linked to sustainable production and consumption, emphasized by Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the impacts of scarcity or endowment of fossil fuels on the global scale remain unknown, which hinders sustainable fossil fuel management from a global perspective. This study analyses the scarcity-weighted fossil fuel extractions (i.e., supply side) and footprints (i.e., demand side) of nations. It identifies the hidden supply-chain risks that cannot be revealed when focusing on supply or demand itself (e.g., France, Norway, and Ecuador from the supply side, and France, Germany, and Norway from the demand side). Moreover, the net trade (= import-export) flows of embodied fossil fuels of certain nations (e.g., France, Australia, and Russia) have even reversed. The novel findings of this study demonstrate the importance of incorporating scarcity footprint into the SDG framework to reveal the hidden supply-chain risks. They could inform more explicit and targeted implications for global sustainable fossil fuel management. Under the background of complex international energy trade relations, nations with high risks should accelerate their energy transitions and strengthen international cooperation from both supply and demand sides.