Incorporating real-time weather conditions into analyzing clearance time of freeway accidents: A grouped random parameters hazard-based duration model with time-varying covariates

Abstract

To minimize non-recurrent congestion, a better understanding of the factors that affect accident clearance time is crucial, in order to optimize incident management strategies. A number of methods have been developed to predict incident clearance duration, but few of those have considered the time-varying nature of certain observed factors. In addressing this gap in the literature, this study developed a grouped random parameters hazard-based duration model with time-varying covariates, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Data on accidents, traffic, road inventory, and real-time weather condition were compiled for the Kaiyang freeway in 2014. Comparison of candidate models shows that the proposed model with Weibull distribution exhibits the best fit performance. The results suggest that the effects of rear-end accident, involvements of trucks or other vehicles, evening hours, and shoulder blockage on the hazard function are heterogeneous across observations. Other variables such as angle accident, injury severity, traffic volume and composition, morning or pre-dawn hours, and blockage of overtaking lane were also found to have significant but homogenous effects on accident clearance time. More importantly, the results also reveal the significant effects of the time-varying covariates (wind speed, temperature, and humidity). Accordingly, the viability and superiority of the proposed model in analyzing accident clearance time are confirmed. Overall, the results of this study are expected not only to improve traffic incident management by allowing government agencies to better understand factors affecting accident clearance times, but also to facilitate incident clearance through the recognition of time-varying pattern.