The role of posted speed limit on pedestrian and bicycle injury severities: An investigation into systematic and unobserved heterogeneities

Abstract

The posted speed limit, as a proxy of actual speed, is one of the most fundamental predictors of active travelers’ (pedestrian and bicyclist) injury outcomes when involved in crashes with motor vehicles. Although earlier studies predominantly considered posted speed limit as an exogenous variable and provided highly insightful findings, majorities of them assume the effects of active traveler behavior to remain the same across different posted speed limits, which in turn neglect the heterogeneity in active traveler behaviors on high-speed roads vs. low-speed roads. This study proposes to develop a latent segmentation-based active traveler injury severity model to relax the homogeneity assumption of the posted speed limit by active traveler behavior. Specifically, this study proposes to estimate a latent segmentation-based correlated random parameters generalized ordered logit model to examine active travel injury severity mechanisms. The proposed model accommodates systematic heterogeneity in the effects of posted speed limit, crash year and active traveler group by using a piecewise linear function in injury severity component of the latent segment model. The model is demonstrated by using active traveler crash data from Queensland, Australia, for the years 2015 through 2019. To demonstrate the implications of the estimated models, a number of hypothetical scenario analyses are performed with a specific focus on active traveler behavior and reduction in posted speed limits. The outcomes from the hypothetical scenario analysis highlighted that a 76 % (73 %) reduction in active traveler fatalities can be achieved by converting 50–60 km/hr roadways to 10–40 km/hr roadways in the urban areas (rural areas) of Queensland. The outcomes of the study will allow us to identify effective speed management strategies while targeting those with high-risk behavior.