Income Volatility and the PSID: Past Research and New Results

Abstract

The PSID has major advantages for studying income volatility and, because of this, research using it has been responsible for major improvements in the methodology of studying income volatility. Its research on calendar trends finds a reasonably consistent pattern for phased but rising male earnings volatility since 1970. Female earnings volatility has declined and household income volatility has risen. Some other datasets find similar patterns but others do not, suggesting the need for more research. A new earnings volatility model is estimated on PSID men through 2014, showing similar patterns but with a large jump during the Great Recession.