Abstract
Aims Population-based incidence data are paramount to assess the effects of prevention strategies for diabetes, yet the relevant studies in mainland China are scarce. This study is aimed at estimating the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence and time trends in Chinese adults. Material and Methods Based on the Diabetes Surveillance System of Zhejiang Province, 879,769 newly diagnosed T2DM cases were identified from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017. Annual incidence, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and average annual percentage change with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. Results The age-standardized overall incidence rate of T2DM was reported to be 281.73 (95% CI: 281.26-282.20) per 100,000 person-years, 293.19 (95% CI: 292.51-293.87) in males and 270.42 (95% CI: 269.76-271.09) in females. Compared with the ≥80 years age group, younger adults were at lower risk for T2DM (IRRs ranged from 0.035 to 0.986 and the 95% CIs did not include the null), except for the 70-79 years age group (IRR: 1.087, 95% CI: 1.077-1.097). Compared with females and rural areas, the risk for T2DM was higher in males (IRR: 1.083, 95% CI: 1.079-1.088) and urban areas (IRR: 1.005, 95% CI: 1.001-1.009), respectively. The standardized annual incidence rate increased from 164.85 in 2007 to 268.65 per 100,000 person-years in 2017, with an average annual increase of 4.01% and grew more rapidly in male, younger, and rural area populations. Conclusions Our study suggested a significant increase in the incidence rate of T2DM among Chinese over the past decade, especially in adults characterized by male sex, younger age, and rural areas.
Highlights
Diabetes has been a growing global problem
With the population-based register of people with diabetes in Zhejiang province of China, we have reported the incidence and time trends of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among adults between 2007 and 2017 and examined the effects of age, sex, and residence area on these estimates
Our findings suggested that the incidence of T2DM increased significantly from 2007 to 2017, and differences in incidences and time trends were observed by age, sex, and residence area
Summary
Diabetes has been a growing global problem. Reported by International Diabetes Federation, the diabetes prevalence among adults aged 20-79 years was 4.6% in 2000, which has risen to 8.8% in 2017 worldwide [1]. Previous literature has declared that the indicator of incidence is more sensitive than prevalence when evaluating the time trends in chronic diseases, such as diabetes. This is because the prevalence depends on incidence and survival, and prevalence of diabetes could rise even if incidence does not, due to the improved survival. The diabetes incidence rates and time trends in Chinese adults have been evaluated in several cohort studies [4,5,6]. Population-based estimation of diabetes incidence and time trends among Chinese adults has been attempted. A study in Journal of Diabetes Research
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