Abstract
BackgroundThe incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The present study analyzed trends in T2DM incidence rate across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.MethodsThe incidence rate was estimated by the data obtained from GBD 2019 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2019) and was analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. Incidence rates of T2DM (1990–2019) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 25 to 29 to 85–89 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.ResultsIn 2019, the the incidence rate of T2DM was 280.2 per 100,000 across the BRICS. Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate of T2DM among the BRICS population increased by 83.3%. In each period, as age increases, the incidence rate of T2DM in China and Russia first increased and then decreased, while the incidence rate of T2DM in Brazil, India and South Africa first increased and then decreased slightly with age group. Deteriorating period and cohort risks for incidence rate of T2DM were generally found across the BRICS.ConclusionsThe number of diabetic patients in the BRICS countries has continued to increase and the growth rate has been stable in the past 30 years, which is dependent on age and some other environmental factors. Some possible factors influencing T2DM incidence are analyzed and hypotheses generated through the age and period effects.
Highlights
The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS)
Using data derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we provide a first comprehensive report of the striking differences in T2DM across Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, as well as associations with age, period, and birth cohort, over the past 30 years
From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in BRICS rose from 152.9 per 100,000 to 280.2 per 100,000, with China having the lowest growth rate of 63.6%, and India having the highest growth rate of 110.9%
Summary
The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). Diabetes mellitus is a chronic metabolic non-communicable disease (NCD), which has spread globally. Analyzing the incidence trend of T2DM can help to understand and control the burden of disease. Russia, India, China, and South Africa constitute the political and economic blocs of countries with rapid economic development, with nearly half of the world’s population [4]. These five countries include several different races, have different cultures and living habits, and have all experienced medical care and socio-economic development. Several of these countries are experiencing aging, and aging likely drives a continued
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