Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly around the world in a frightening way. In Brazil, the third country with the highest number of infected and deaths from the disease, it is important for government health authorities to identify the federation units that stand out in cases and deaths from this disease to target resources. The circular scan statistic proposed by Martin Kulldorff allows to identify with some statistical significance the units of the federation that stand out in relation to the number of cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazil. Such units of federation are known as clusters. Once these clusters were identified, we used the coefficients of incidence and lethality to better describe the behavior of these clusters during three phases of the pandemic: the initial phase, the peak phase, and also the stability and fall phase. We observed changes in the location of the clusters identified in these three phases and used the R software and also the SaTScan software to obtain the maps and results, which were consistent with what was reported by the Brazilian media.
Highlights
At the end of 2019, a local outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia was identified in Wuhan (Hubei, China), a new coronavirus
It is of great importance for the bodies responsible for public health in some locality to know the rate of manifestation of a specific disease to assess situations of cause and effect and the number of people who were affected by such disease by estimating the severity of the disease
The data under study are available from the Ministry of Health of Brazil and can be found at https://susanalitico.saude.gov.br/extensions/covid-19_ html/covid-19_html.html
Summary
At the end of 2019, a local outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia was identified in Wuhan (Hubei, China), a new coronavirus. Coronaviruses (CoV) are a sizeable viral family known around the mid-1960s, causing respiratory infections in humans and animals These viruses are large, enveloped, positive-stranded RNA that can be divided into four genera: alpha, beta, delta, and gamma, of which CoVs alpha and beta infect humans (WILD et al, 2017; FERNANDES et al, 2020). One strategy is to identify F.U.’S, whose occurrence of any factor related to this pandemic is inconsistent with the others, which can be just one F.U. or a set of F.U.’S connected, as was done in the work of (ALVES et al, 2020) In this sense, spatial methods of cluster detection become useful tools as they aim to identify different patterns of spatial association (PINTO et al, 2014). We calculated the coefficients of incidence and lethality for each of the clusters detected in each phase considered
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