Incentivizing emission controls toward clean air and carbon neutrality in China: Perspectives from a risk-based approach for air quality management.

Abstract

Air Quality Standards (AQSs) worldwide have continued to employ concentration-based approaches since their first implementation under the 1970 Clean Air Act in the United States. The primary objective of establishing these AQSs is widely recognized as protecting public health. With the significantly improved understanding of the health risks associated with air pollutants today, it is an opportune time to reassess air pollution management from a fundamental risk perspective. This study applied a risk-based AQS system to assess the overall mortality risks associated with both long- and short-term exposure to air pollution in China between 2015 and 2022. The analyses revealed that the health benefits resulting from reductions in concentrations of non-ozone (O3) pollutants exceeded the health risks associated with increasing O3 concentrations. As a result, the overall mortality risk across China showed a significant descending trend. During the initial phase of decarbonization, emission reductions may unintentionally lead to increased O3 concentrations in China due to the non-linear response of O3 to its precursors. Nevertheless, the overall health benefits derived from emission controls incentivize governments to implement stringent measures toward achieving carbon neutrality. These findings highlight the substantial benefits of applying the risk-based AQS system for synergistic health and carbon management.