Incarceration Heterogeneity and Its Implications for Assessing the Effectiveness of Imprisonment on Recidivism

Abstract

Mass incarceration has led to increased interest in understanding the effects of imprisonment. Reviews of criminological theory and research report mixed evidence that incarceration reduces recidivism; indeed, some studies report criminogenic effects. We argue that a better understanding of the heterogeneity of incarceration—including the types and sequences of sanctions and experiences that occur before, during, and after imprisonment—and of incarceration effects among different groups is important for two reasons. First, it can assist with assessing the salience of prior research on the effects of incarceration on recidivism. Second, it serves to identify conceptual and methodological challenges that must be addressed to provide credible assessments of incarceration effects. The paper argues that incarceration likely exerts a variable effect depending on the nature of the prison experience, the counterfactual conditions, including prior sanction history, and the specific populations subject to imprisonment. Implications for theory, research, and policy are discussed.