In this issue of Weather

Abstract

This issue includes a great variety of meteorological topics, including fog forecasting, the measurement of climatic changes as reflected in soil temperatures, the flooding from a thunderstorm, the need to conserve water in a desert region, the communicationnof uncertainty and the relationship of snow and ice with literature in both East and West. Fog forecasting remains difficult for forecasters: numerical models provide some guidance, but both empirical and numerical methods have significant deficiencies. To add to well-established empirical methods, we start with a revised treatment that should aid forecasts of radiation fog, as explained by Anne Barber and Matt Woods in ‘The adapted Middle Wallop technique: a new method of forecasting the fog point’ on p. 255. On p. 260 we move on to an examination of soil temperatures as markers of climate, as described by J Webb, Barbara Amon, Madhu Subedi and Michael Fullen in ‘Temporal changes in soil temperature at Wolverhampton, UK and Hohe Warte, Vienna, Austria 1976–2010’. Rising temperature is evident in their results, but to varying degrees. It will be interesting to see how these measurements continue to change – a marker that is insulated, at least to some extent, from short-period variation. M. Lickiss, K. J. Mulder, A. Black, A. J. Charlton-Perez, R. A. McCloy and R. Chandler look at how forecasters treat the complexity of their science and the associated uncertainty in ‘Developing a quick guide on presenting data and uncertainty’ on p. 266. Getting an appropriate balance, so that the customer knows what is meant, but weather is neither under-, nor over-forecast, remains a difficulty and this paper describees a suitable methodology. Ice and snow have featured in the literature of both East and West, often in an alegorical way. Hisami Nakamura and Julyan Cartwright have already described the early history of ice and snow described in literature in the first two parts of their series. On p. 272, ‘Hot ice and wondrous strange snow – a history of ice and snow – part 3’ they move on, concentrating on Twentieth Century poetry and novels. Just over 20 years ago, heavy thundery rain fell in West Dorset and parts of Devon, as described by Andrew Sibley in ‘Severe thunderstorm and flooding in East Devon on 7 August 1997’ on p. 276. Andrew presents the development of the storm and its effects clearly and the requirements – as well as possible limitations – are evident. On p. 280, we move on to ‘Methodology for the determination of trends for climatic and hydrometric parameters upstream of the Dez Dam’ by A. Adib, A. Navaseri and B. Shenasa. Iran – despite its mountainous interior – is a desert contry and the south of the nation sources much of its water from reservoirs. The expected water levels are strongly dependent on precipitation, so it is increasingly necessary to measure river flow and relate it to other meteorological measurements – especially in a time of changing climate.