In the ‘Shadow’ of the EU: Perceptions of China and Strategic Considerations in Poland and Ukraine

Abstract

The European Union (EU) has continuously extended its presence in the post-communist neighbourhood through the offer of membership and/or closer political and economic association. Meanwhile, the growing competition among various powers in the region brings a potential of new divisions in Europe, as Ukraine’s crisis demonstrates. Furthermore, while the presence of such powers as the United States (US) or Russia is somewhat traditional for the region, China’s growing economic engagement with post-communist states reveals its potential to become an equally important actor. This article examines this potential of China on the examples of Poland and Ukraine, as both countries share geographic and historical similarities but differ in their Europeanization progress. We believe that this convergence with the EU may affect the way Ukraine and Poland perceive and accordingly engage with China and test this hypothesis within the neoclassical realist framework. We find that the perceptions of China in the two countries affect the intensity of their engagement with China, especially when the EU is concerned. Moreover, the effectiveness of the relationship-building with China, in line with neoclassical realism, depends on the extent to which their political decisions are guided by strategic considerations as opposed to perceptions of international affairs. This is true for the dynamics of China’s relations with the two countries not only in the long run but also in light of the most recent developments in the international arena. perceptions, China, the EU, Poland, Ukraine, Russia