In silico prediction of pathogen’s pandemic potential using viral trait assessment for pandemics (ViTAP) model

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Abstract Our world is ever evolving and interconnected, creating constant opportunities for disease outbreaks and pandemics to occur, making pandemic preparedness and pathogen management crucial for global health security. Early pathogen identification and intervention play a key role in mitigating the impacts of disease outbreaks. In this perspective, we present the novel Viral Trait Assessment for Pandemics (ViTAP) model to aid in the early identification of high-risk viruses that have pandemic potential, which incorporates lessons from past pandemics, including which key viral characteristics are important such as genetic makeup, transmission modes, mutation rates, and symptom severity. This model serves as the foundation for the development of powerful, quantitative tools for the early prediction of pandemic pathogens. The use of such a tool, in conjunction with other pandemic preparedness measures, can allow for early intervention and containment of the virus. This proactive approach could enable timely interventions, guiding public health responses and resource allocation to prevent widespread outbreaks and mitigate the impact of emerging pathogens.