In search of sectoral foresight methodology: Bridging foresight and sectoral system of innovation and production

Abstract

This paper contributes, firstly, to the development of a conceptual and methodological approach to sectoral technology foresight, theoretically drawing on the conclusions of chaos and complexity theories and the theory of evolution to respond to the growing complexity, rapid changes, and changing role of various actors in evolution, and secondly, to the building of a methodological framework for bridging the sectoral technology foresight and the sectoral innovation system to ensure competitiveness and sustainable development of the system. Sectoral technology foresight is designed to spark a dialogue across sectoral actors and interrelated sectoral innovation systems. New approaches to reframing basic foresight methods bring non-linearity in the assessment of historical paths and the future, make foresight methods sensitive to weak signals, and link future technologies with the mission of the innovation system as a prerequisite for building a bridge between them. The methodology constitutes a step forward towards the dialogue between foresight and the innovation system. Its advantage is that it brings together the sectoral lens with global and social challenges focused lens, and technology focused lens. It is of crucial importance that in this case the vector of transformational changes in the system is governed by future technologies.