Abstract
The China sports lottery contributes to sports and welfare causes. This study aims to construct a macro forecasting model supporting its sustained growth aligned with Vision 2035. The modeling employed a distributional regression. Sales data of the China sports lottery from 2011 to 2022 were chosen as the response variable, alongside various macro- and event-level explanatory factors. A gamma distribution best fit the data. In the stable model spanning 2011-2019, urbanization, population dynamics, and FIFA emerged as significant contributors (Chi-square p < 0.05) to the location shift parameter. These three factors retained their significance in the 2011-2022 shock model, where shock itself notably impacted sales (p < 0.001). Utilizing the shock model, we simulated the trajectory of the China sports lottery up to 2035. China's demographics changes are poised to create structural headwinds starting in 2026, leading to an anticipated decline in sales driven by population shifts from 2032 onward. However, the FIFA effect is projected to continue fortifying this sector. Beyond offering original insights into the sales trajectory until 2035, specifically concerning new urbanization, negative population growth, and the FIFA effect, this macro forecasting framework can assist in addressing the policy priority of balancing growth with risk mitigation. We recommend policymakers connect market development with mass sports, potentially garnering a dual boost from the growing population of older consumers and the inherent benefits of a "FIFA (mass sports)" effect. A people-centered approach to the China sports lottery could significantly contribute to the long-range objectives of achieving common prosperity outlined in Vision 2035.
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