Abstract
New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.
Highlights
As global climate change accelerates, one of the most urgent tasks for the coming decades is to develop accurate predictions about biological responses to guide the effective protection of biodiversity
We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change
Climate scientists in 1975 acknowledged their inability to predict climate accurately and highlighted the many challenges to reaching this objective [66]. They outlined an ambitious long-term research program aimed at understanding key mechanisms governing climate change and collecting key pieces of missing information
Summary
As global climate change accelerates, one of the most urgent tasks for the coming decades is to develop accurate predictions about biological responses to guide the effective protection of biodiversity. Predictive models in biology provide a means for scientists to project changes to species and ecosystems in response to disturbances such as climate change. Exclude important biological mechanisms such as demography, dispersal, evolution, and species interactions. These biological mechanisms have been shown to be important in mediating past and present responses to climate change. Current modeling efforts do not provide sufficiently accurate predictions.
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