Improving the cloud initialization in WRF-Solar with enhanced short-range forecasting functionality: The MAD-WRF model

Abstract

In spite of WRF-Solar being a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically tailored for solar energy applications, the model lacks a specific cloud initialization component to improve short-range predictions. To overcome this limitation we have combined the fundamental concepts of the Multi-sensor Advection Diffusion nowCast (MADCast) model of using satellite observations to detect the clouds and advect and diffuse the clouds within a NWP model, with the better cloud–aerosol–radiation physics of WRF-Solar, into a new model referred to as MAD-WRF. The MAD-WRF cloud initialization combines a cloud parameterization that infers the presence of clouds based on relative humidity with observations of the cloud mask and cloud top/base height to provide a three-dimensional cloud analysis (liquid, ice, and snow hydrometeor content). During the forecasts, the hydrometeors can be advected and diffused with no microphysics, in what we refer to as the MAD-WRF passive mode. Alternatively, these passive hydrometeors can be integrated into the explicitly resolved hydrometeors during a nudging phase, designated the MAD-WRF active mode. In the nudging phase, there is a relaxation of the resolved hydrometeors towards the passive hydrometeors. Both modes aim to avoid an abrupt dissipation of clouds if the atmospheric environment is not adequate to support them. Both MAD-WRF active and passive modes as well as WRF-Solar have been run in a demonstration of MAD-WRF over the contiguous U.S., and results from these short-range forecasts (0–6 h) are presented here to illustrate the added value of MAD-WRF for global horizontal irradiance predictions. These results clearly illustrate the added value that MAD-WRF brings for short term irradiance predictions with the WRF-Solar model.