Improving Soil Moisture Profile Prediction With the Particle Filter-Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

Satellite soil moisture estimates have received increasing attention over the past decade. This paper examines the applicability of estimating soil moisture states and soil hydraulic parameters through two particle filter (PF) methods: The PF with commonly used sampling importance resampling (PF-SIR) and the PF with recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (PF-MCMC) methods. In a synthetic experiment, the potential of assimilating remotely sensed near-surface soil moisture measurements into a 1-D mechanistic soil water model (HYDRUS-1D) using both the PF-SIR and PF-MCMC algorithms is analyzed. The effects of satellite temporal resolution and accuracy, soil type, and ensemble size on the assimilation of soil moisture are analyzed. In a real data experiment, we first validate the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer--Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) soil moisture products in the Oklahoma Little Washita Watershed. Aside from rescaling the remotely sensed soil moisture, a bias correction algorithm is implemented to correct the deep soil moisture estimate. Both the ascending and descending AMSR-E soil moisture data are assimilated into the HYDRUS-1D model. The synthetic assimilation results indicated that, whereas both updating schemes showed the ability to correct the soil moisture state and estimate hydraulic parameters, the PF-MCMC scheme is consistently more accurate than PR-SIR. For real data case, the quality of remotely sensed soil moisture impacts the benefits of their assimilation into the model. The PF-MCMC scheme brought marginal gains than the open-loop simulation in RMSE at both surface and root-zone soil layer, whereas the PF-SIR scheme degraded the open-loop simulation.