Improving Dam and Reservoir Operation Rules Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and Artificial Neural Network Integration Model

Fayaed Fayaed,Ibrahim Ibrahim,Ahmed Ahmed,Afan Afan,Fiyadh Fiyadh,Koting Koting,Khai Khai,El-Shafie El-Shafie,Fai Fai,Mohd Mohd,Binti Jaafar Binti Jaafar,Hin Hin

doi:10.3390/su11195367

Fayaed Fayaed, Ibrahim Ibrahim + Show 10 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195367

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Abstract

The simulation elevation-surface area-storage interrelationship of a reservoir is a crucial task in developing ideal water release policies for reservoir and dam operations. In this study, an inclusive (stochastic dynamic programming-artificial neural network (SDP-ANN)) model was established and applied to obtain an ideal reservoir operation strategy for Sg. Langat reservoir in Malaysia. The problems associated with the management of water resources mostly relate to uncertainty and the stochastic nature of the reservoir inflow, and the SDP-ANN model is meant to consider uncertainty in the input parameters such as reservoir inflow and reservoir evaporation losses. The performance of the SDP-ANN model was compared to that of the stochastic dynamic programming-autoregression (AR) model. The primary aim of the model is to decrease the squared deviation from the desired water release, which we determined by comparing the SDP-AR and SDP-ANN model performances. The results indicate that the SDP-ANN model demonstrated greater resilience and reliability with a lower supply deficit. Consequently, the case study results confirm that the SDP-ANN model performs better than the SDP-AR model in obtaining the best parameters for the reservoir operation. Specifically, a comparison of the models shows that the proposed Model 2 increased the reliability and resilience of the system by 7.5% and 6.3%, respectively.

Highlights

Water stress and scarcity, population growth, ongoing economic development, and climate change are considered to be the major challenges faced by water resource planners and managers
This is because the water resources available in a particular catchment remain essentially unchanged while the water demand continually increases and can follow different temporal patterns
Water resource planners could adjust the volumes of water released from reservoirs, according to the actual water demands associated with temporal patterns

Summary

Introduction

Population growth, ongoing economic development, and climate change are considered to be the major challenges faced by water resource planners and managers. This is because the water resources available in a particular catchment remain essentially unchanged while the water demand continually increases and can follow different temporal patterns. The available water resources must be managed to match the temporal patterns of water demand. In this context, water resource planners and decision-makers have suggested that dams be constructed to control river stream flows and create storage reservoirs upstream from dams. To ensure the sustainable operation of water released from the dams and reservoirs of a water system, the operation rules must be updated and the water release policy optimized with respect to the water demand patterns

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