Abstract
Since March 2008, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has operated a Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) system to issue forecasts of areas in Japan where ash falls are expected following volcanic eruptions. The hazardous effects of ash falls vary according to the quantity of ash generated and have different consequences for agriculture, communication and transport networks, and buildings. The prediction techniques based on the JMA Regional Atmospheric Transport Model were recently revised by the Meteorological Research Institute of JMA to allow predictions of the quantity and areas of ash fall, and areas to be affected by lapilli fall. JMA plans further improvements to the VAFF system to address the needs of people living near active volcanoes and to take into account expert advice in fields such as volcanology, disaster prevention, and broadcasting and medical services. The improved VAFF system will provide three types of information: a regular information before possible eruption, a brief preliminary forecast issued 5–10 minutes after an eruption, and a full forecast issued 20–30 minutes after an eruption. JMA has developed a table to accompany VAFFs that categorizes the hazardous effects for people according to various quantities of ash fall, and provides advice on preparedness measures and actions to be taken when an ash fall occurs. The new VAFF system will also provide predictions of areas of expected lapilli fall. JMA will start operation of the new VAFF system in spring 2015.
Highlights
Since March 2008, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has operated the Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) system to provide forecasts when ash falls are expected to affect large areas
To improve the current VAFF system and make it a more-effective tool for disaster prevention or mitigation, JMA took into account the needs of VAFF users and the opinions of experts in various fields including disaster prevention organizations
Important improvements to be implemented in the new VAFF system are the provision of predictions of ash-fall quantity and areas of lapilli fall
Summary
Since March 2008, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has operated the Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) system to provide forecasts when ash falls are expected to affect large areas. The present system predicts only the areas where ash may fall. Volcanic ash falls affect buildings and many areas of human activity, such as traffic, infrastructure lifelines, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and human health (e.g. Mt. Fuji Hazard Map Examination Committee 2004; Horwell and Baxter 2006; Wilson et al 2012). Prediction of the quantity of ash falls is important for disaster mitigation or prevention. In March 2013, JMA presented a Proposal for Advanced VAFF at a meeting of the Working Group on Advanced VAFF. JMA will update the existing VAFF system to incorporate new capabilities and create a distribution system for forecasts. JMA plans to have the new system operational in spring 2015
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