Improvement of mesoscale numerical weather prediction WRF-ARW in the Republic of Belarus by assimilation of radar wind and reflectivity data

Abstract

The forecasts of severe weather events obtained with the WRF numerical mesoscale model with the adapted system for assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity data from the network of Belarusian Doppler weather radars used in Belhydromet in 2019 are analysed. A description of the system for the echo quality control based on the radar dual-polarisation characteristics and the method for three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-VAR) used to assimilate data in the WRF model are described. The results of case studies on the simulation of precipitation and strong wind for various circulation types in Belarus with and without radar data assimilation are given. The statistical and object-oriented verification of these forecasts is provided. The results of the comprehensive assessment reveal a decrease in the forecast error for 10-m wind speed for the early forecast hours (+6 h) by 1.34 m/s, as well as a more accurate forecast of the location, orientation of the cloud systems and precipitation zones, and a decrease in the number of false alarms in the version with assimilation. A preliminary conclusion on the possibility of using the forecast results in nowcasting systems is also made.