Abstract

Financial crisis early warning is an important link in financial management. With its relatively simple structure and excellent classification performance, support vector machine is often used in intelligent warning of financial crises. A financial warning model based on improved support vector machine is proposed to address the shortcomings of current financial warning methods that cannot handle large-scale data well, and the accuracy and efficiency are not ideal. In response to the excessive indicators in the financial early warning indicator system, the principal component analysis method is studied for dimensionality reduction, reducing the computational complexity of the model, and improving the training and operational efficiency of the model. In response to the limited practicality of support vector machine, which can only search for the optimal solution under constraint conditions, the use of smooth support vector machine to replace support vector machine for predictive classification is studied. Finally, a financial crisis early warning model is constructed based on smooth support vector machine using principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction of input data. The performance of the model is tested using an internet listed company as an example. The findings demonstrate that Model 1 outperforms the other three models in terms of accuracy rate (95%), MAE, MSE and [Formula: see text] values (0.162, 0.174 and 0.169, respectively). Therefore, the financial crisis early warning model constructed by the research can properly forecast the company’s financial situation, thereby helping the enterprise to develop better.

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