Improved BP neural network algorithm to wind power forecast

Abstract

To constantly enhance the accuracy of wind power prediction and furthermore reduce the uncertainty of power grid dispatching, this study proposes an improved back propagation (BP) neural network algorithm. The original prediction method of BP neural network algorithm has been improved, and the traditional minimum square error (SE) perform function is abandoned. Maximum correntropy criteria (MCC) algorithm which is more conducive to deal with non-Gaussian error and big noise is introduced, and a new perform function is created. Through the analysis of examples, the feasibility of MCC algorithm is verified. Comparing to the traditional mean SE (MSE) perform function, MCC perform function could drop the limit error of prediction, reduce root MSE and increase the correlation between forecasting power and real power. The most important is that the prediction accuracy is enhanced.