Abstract
A comprehensive and objective risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on an improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) is established to identify potential hazards in time. First, a barrier model and fault tree analysis are used to establish an index system for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation on the basis of five important factors: corrosion, external interference, material/construction, natural disasters, and function and operation. Next, the index weight for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation is computed by applying the improved AHP based on the five-scale method. Then, the TOPSIS of a multi-attribute decision-making theory is studied. The method for determining positive/negative ideal solutions and the normalized equation for benefit/cost indexes is improved to render TOPSIS applicable for the comprehensive risk evaluation of pipelines. The closeness coefficient of oil and gas pipelines is calculated by applying the improved TOPSIS. Finally, the weight and the closeness coefficient are combined to determine the risk level of pipelines. Empirical research using a long-distance pipeline as an example is conducted, and adjustment factors are used to verify the model. Results show that the risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on the improved AHP–TOPSIS is valuable and feasible. The model comprehensively considers the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines and provides comprehensive, rational, and scientific evaluation results. It represents a new decision-making method for systems engineering in pipeline enterprises and provides a comprehensive understanding of the safety status of oil and gas pipelines. The new system engineering decision-making method is important for preventing oil and gas pipeline accidents.
Highlights
Oil and gas pipelines are key parts of oil and gas distribution and form the backbone of the national network that connects the east to the west and the north to the south (Brito and Almeida 2009)
We find that improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is appropriate for calculating the index weight for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation by consulting a large amount of the existing literature (Xie et al 2012; Aminbakhsh et al 2013; Chen et al 2014; Acharya et al 2017)
The quantitative value of the second-level index of risk evaluation is unreliable in the calculation of oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation model, and the data used for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation should include the five major risk factors: corrosion, external interference, material/construction, natural disasters, and function and operation
Summary
Oil and gas pipelines are key parts of oil and gas distribution and form the backbone of the national network that connects the east to the west and the north to the south (Brito and Almeida 2009). Ma et al (2013) used GIS to quantitatively evaluate the risk of an urban natural gas pipeline network Their proposed QRA includes the comprehensive evaluation of pipeline network failure probability, the quantitative analysis of accident consequences, and the evaluations of individual and social risks. TOPSIS is a comprehensive analysis method with multiple attributes Numerous risk factors, such as corrosion, external interference, and design, can be considered, and pipeline construction and testing data and other data accumulated by pipeline companies can be directly used in risk evaluation. The barrier model and fault tree analysis are used to establish the index system for pipeline risk evaluation based on the five important factors of corrosion, external interference, material/construction, natural disasters, and function and operation. It can sort and classify pipelines in accordance with risk and provide decision-making support to pipeline enterprises for the safe management of pipelines
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