Importance of Holidays for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

In distributing systems, load forecasting is one of the major management problems to carry on energy flowing; protect the systems, and economic management. In order to manage the system, next step of the load characteristics must be inform from historical data sets. For the forecasting, not only historical parameters are used but also external parameters such as weather conditions, seasons and populations and etc. have much importance to forecast the next behavior of the load characteristic. Holidays and week days have different affects on energy consumption in any country. In this study, target is to forecast the peak energy level the next an hour and to compare affects of week days and holidays on peak energy needs. Energy consumption data sets have nonlinear characteristics and it is not easy to fit any curve due to its nonlinearity and lots of parameters. In order to forecast peak energy level, Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system is used for hourly affects of holidays and week days on peak energy level is argued. The obtained values from output of the artificial intelligence are evaluated two fold cross validation and mean absolute percentage error. The obtained two fold cross validation error as mean absolute percentage error is 3.51 and included holidays data set has more accuracy than the data set without holiday. Total success increased 2.4%.