Implications of the Global Race to Net-Zero by 2050 for the Strategic Fleet of Coal-Fired Power Plants in SADC

Abstract

This paper discusses the coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), in the context of the net-zero by 2050 initiative. It describes recent global climate change responses impacting the operation of CFPPs, and the medium-to-long term prospects for coal power. The paper then discusses the motivators and strategies for sustaining the operations of CFPPs in SADC, and why the international community has to let countries in the region and other small developing nations, transition to renewable energies at a more measured pace. It also offers actionable insights on sustainable financing options for upgrading the region’s CFPPs and just energy transitions. Following a balanced assessment of the facts and broad issues discussed herein including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7, 10, 13, and 17; the paper concludes that most of the CFPPs in SADC are likely to remain operational way beyond the phase out deadlines despite lacking emissions abatement technologies. The pressing and burgeoning need for electricity and the huge coal reserves in the region are the determinants, rather than international norms or political correctness. However, no development institution or major country will finance any new CFPP projects in SADC, but renewable energy projects instead. Thus, national energy policymakers and power utilities in the region are recommended to revise the current energy policies to include renewable energy expansion and obliterate any mentions of proposed or planned CFPPs. SADC governments need to engage in public dissemination campaigns about the impending energy transition implications for all citizens and map out pragmatic cushioning strategies. Concurrently, they need to support innovations and entrepreneurship in renewable energies and work on improving national creditworthiness scores, to attract climate finance.