IMPLICATIONS OF MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

E E Osuji,J A L Effiong,U G Anyanwu,M O Okwara,A Tim-Ashama

doi:10.52417/ojas.v1i1.88

Abstract

In recent time, the impact of macro-economic variables on agriculture has become an issue of concern in terms of securing adequate food supply for the populace. This study evaluated the implications of macro-economic variables for national food security in Nigeria. This study made use of time series data sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Reports, Statistical Bulletins and the National Bureau of Statistics spanning from 1995 to 2015. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration test with Error Correction Model (ECM) was adopted to substantiate the implications of these macro-economic variables. The results of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test showed that Food security, Interest rate, Exchange rate, Net export and Government expenditures were non stationary at their respective level forms and became stationary at first difference. While Inflation and Money supply were found to be stationary at level form. ARDL bounds test for co-integration confirms the existence of long run relationship between the variables. The results of long run and short run relationships shows that Interest rate, Inflation, Government expenditures and Money supply were both significant at 5% and 1% levels indicating that these variables had a significant impact on food security. The estimated error correction coefficient of -0.7996 is highly significant, has the correct sign, and implies a fairly high speed of adjustment to equilibrium after a shock. However, these findings recommend farmers in Nigeria to take good advantage of the linkages between macroeconomic variables and agricultural productivity, as this useful information can assist them to boost their land productivity, hence increased food security at all times. Osuji, E. E. | Department of Agricultural Economics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike (MOUAU), Abia State, Nigeria

Highlights

The concept of food security is examined at different levels in view of the various players in the food chain (Moses, 2006)
NIGERIA FOOD SECURITY IN COMPARISON WITH SELECTED COUNTRIES Table 1; shows that only 9% of the Nigerian population is undernourished compared to 32% for Botswana, 31% for Kenya and less than 2.5% for South Africa
The impact of macro-economic variables on agriculture has become an issue of concern in terms of securing adequate food supply for the populace

Summary

Introduction

The concept of food security is examined at different levels in view of the various players in the food chain (Moses, 2006). Food security implies ensuring physical and economic access to adequate food for all household members at all times without excessive risk of losing such access (FAO, 2007) This definition entails food availability, food stability, the promotion of access and reduction in the vulnerability of household members to income and production shocks (Abalu, 1999, Davies, 2009). Food security at the national level is conceived in terms of achieving a satisfactory balance between food demand and food supply at reasonable and stable prices (Timmer, 2004) This definition indicates a situation of developed and well-functioning food markets with no major upheavals, where adequate food is available and where most of the population have access to that food. It is sometimes argued that the best way to increase a country’s food security is to increase its level of self-sufficiency, and this idea has a certain intuitive appeal (Agba, 2006; Nielson, 2006)

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Results

Conclusion