Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).

Maria Teresa Ferreira,Rosalina Gabriel,Pedro Cardoso,Rui Bento Elias,Paulo A V Borges,Eduardo Brito De Azevedo,Mary Peacock

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0218168

Maria Teresa Ferreira, Rosalina Gabriel + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218168

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Abstract

Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands.

Highlights

Protected areas are created nowadays to maintain iconic landscapes and seascapes and ensure biodiversity conservation, and to play a key part in the mitigation of, and/or adaptation to, climate change [1]
The results from overlaying the species potential distributions with the current protected areas showed that the average coverage percentage is 53±16%, with only the Bryophytes in Terceira Island having values above 44±13%, while the remainder values average around 30% for the three taxonomic groups (Table 1)
There is a reduction in the overall distribution of the species from one time period to the other, for Terceira the current protected areas still contain much of the diversity within its boundaries (Fig 1)

Summary

Methods

Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas continent. It is comprised of nine main islands of recent volcanic origin, distributed in three groups: the western group of Corvo and Flores; the central group of Faial, Pico, Graciosa, São Jorge, and Terceira; and the eastern group of São Miguel and Santa Maria. This study focuses on Terceira and São Miguel (S1 Fig), two of the largest, better studied, more populated, and economically, most important islands of the archipelago. The two islands differ greatly in the current area of protected pristine forest, with Terceira (400.3 Km2) having the largest area of well-preserved continuous natural vegetation in Azores (23.45Km2), while São Miguel (744.56 Km2) has only a very small area of pristine natural vegetation (3.31 Km2) [26]. São Miguel has a high proportion of single island endemics (13%) [27] for a small proportion of protected pristine forests (S1 Table)

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Discussion

Conclusion