Abstract
Abstract Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends (+0.11°C/decade) reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming (+0.7°C/decade) trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007–2008 using snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamflow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%–40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, water resource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.
Highlights
Climate change poses a threat to global fresh water resources and aquatic eco-systems
Is the area of the basin or zone, n is the sequence of days, Tn is the number of degree days (°C day), ∆Tn is the temperature adjustment based on lapse rate (°C day), Sn is the ratio of SCA to total area, P is the precipitation contributing to runoff, Cs is the runoff coefficient for snow, CR is the runoff coefficient for rain, α is the degree day factor and k denotes recession coefficient indicating decline of discharge in a period without snowmelt or rainfall
The comparison between daily calculated and in-situ discharge for the year 2007–2008 is shown in (Figure 3).The simulated stream flow values were in the close proximity of in-situ Jhelum River discharge
Summary
Climate change poses a threat to global fresh water resources and aquatic eco-systems. Significant rise in air temperature by 1.6°C in the last century has been observed in the north-west Himalayas (Bhutiyani et al 2007). This warming trend is higher than global average quoted by IPCC fourth assessment report. The north-western Himalayas are the source of major perennial rivers such as Indus, Jhelum, Satluj, Raavi and Chenab. These rivers are important fresh water resources and are crucial for the ecological and economical sustainability of fertile northern plains of India.
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