Implementation of BIM Energy Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation for Estimating Building Energy Performance Based on Regression Approach: A Case Study

Abstract

The energy performance prediction of buildings plays a significant role in the design phases. Theoretical analysis and statistical analysis are typically carried out to predict energy consumption. However, due to the complexity of the building characteristics, precise energy performance can hardly be predicted in the early design stage. This study considers both building information modeling (BIM) and statistical approaches, including several regression models for the prediction purpose. This paper also highlights a number of findings of energy modeling related to building energy performance simulation software, particularly Autodesk Green Building Studio. In this research, the geometric models were created using Autodesk Revit. Based on the energy simulation conducted by Autodesk Green Building Studio (GBS), the energy properties of five prototype and case study models were determined. The GBS simulation was carried out using DOE 2.2 engine. Eight parameters were used in BIM, including building type, location, building area, analysis year, floor-to-ceiling height, floor construction, wall construction, and ceiling construction. The Monte Carlo simulation method was performed to predict precise energy consumption. Among the regression models developed, the single variable linear regression models appear to have high accuracy. Although there exist some limitations in applying the equation in EUI prediction, the rough estimation of energy use was realized. Regression model validation was carried out using the model from the case study and Monte Carlo simulation results. A total of 35 runs of validation were performed, and most differences were maintained within 5%. The results show some limitations in the application of the linear regression model.