Implementation of Backpropagation Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Palm Oil Price Fresh Fruit Bunches

Abstract

Riau Province is one of the regions known for its plantation products, especially in the oil palm sector, so that Riau Province and regional districts focus on oil palm plants as the main commodity of plantations in Riau. Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Riau Province, the annual production of oil palm plantations, especially smallholder plantations in Riau province has always increased. So is the demand for world CPO. But sometimes the selling price of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) for smallholder plantations always changes due to many influential factors. With the Artificial Neural Network approach, the Backpropagation algorithm we conduct training and testing of the time series variables that affect the data, namely data on the area of oil palm plantations in Riau Province; Total palm oil production in Riau Province; Palm Oil Productivity in Riau Province; Palm Oil Exports in Riau Province and Average World CPO Prices. Then price predictions will be made in the future. Based on the results of the training and testing, the best Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture model was obtained with 9 input layers, 5 hidden layers and 1 output layer. The output of RMSE 0000699 error value and accuracy percentage is 99.97% so that it can make price predictions according to the given target value.