Impacts of production structure changes on global CH4 emissions: Evidences from income-based accounting and decomposition analysis

Abstract

Globalization drives anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions from upstream to downstream agents through global supply chains. However, previous studies have overlooked the indirect CH4 emissions enabled by primary suppliers. In this study, we use the Ghosh Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model and Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) to explore the temporal changes in global income-based CH4 emissions and decompose the socioeconomic drivers. Our results show that global income-based CH4 emissions increased by 17.21% from 2001 to 2014, with per capita primary inputs and technology being the two key drivers. Specifically, in China and India, income-based CH4 emissions were mainly from agriculture, and input structure was responsible for restraining the growth in CH4 emissions from their agricultural activities. On the other hand, service activities dominated the United States and the European Union, and production output structure was accountable for their emission growth related to service activities. To achieve global CH4 emission mitigation, key sectors of major economies with high income-based CH4 emissions should optimize their primary input structures, production output structure, and production technologies from the supply-side. It is crucial to reduce enabled CH4 emissions in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, through the adjustment of primary input activities.