Economic drivers of global and regional CH4 emission growth from the consumption perspective

Abstract

Global methane (CH4) emission is increasing steadily, however, the current understanding of such growth is insufficient. This paper investigated the economic drivers of global anthropogenic CH4 emission growth from 2001 to 2014, combining the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model with Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). The contributions of drivers, sectors and international trade to the changes in global and main economies’ emissions were decomposed. Results show that change in consumption per capita was the largest factor for global emission growth while technological improvements contributed the most to emission mitigation. Together, growth in CH4 emissions embodied in final demand in China and India accounted for 56.02% of global total growth, and their growth was mainly caused by the increased consumption of agricultural products per capita. Due to technological development, especially in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, there was a decrease in CH4 emissions embodied in the European countries, the US, and Japan, which offset 33.22% of global emission growth. CH4 emissions embodied in the imports of developed countries from emerging countries declined after 2010. This paper explores how both global and regional CH4 emissions increase from the consumption perspective, which is critical for future emission mitigation in supply chains.