Impacts of physical and chemical aquifer heterogeneity on basin-scale solute transport: Vulnerability of deep groundwater to arsenic contamination in Bangladesh

Abstract

Aquifer heterogeneity presents a primary challenge in predicting the movement of solutes in groundwater systems. The problem is particularly difficult on very large scales, across which permeability, chemical properties, and pumping rates may vary by many orders of magnitude and data are often sparse. An example is the fluvio-deltaic aquifer system of Bangladesh, where naturally-occurring arsenic (As) exists over tens of thousands of square kilometers in shallow groundwater. Millions of people in As-affected regions rely on deep (≥150m) groundwater as a safe source of drinking water. The sustainability of this resource has been evaluated with models using effective properties appropriate for a basin-scale contamination problem, but the extent to which preferential flow affects the timescale of downward migration of As-contaminated shallow groundwater is unknown. Here we embed detailed, heterogeneous representations of hydraulic conductivity (K), pumping rates, and sorptive properties (Kd) within a basin-scale numerical groundwater flow and solute transport model to evaluate their effects on vulnerability and deviations from simulations with homogeneous representations in two areas with different flow systems. Advective particle tracking shows that heterogeneity in K does not affect average travel times from shallow zones to 150m depth, but the travel times of the fastest 10% of particles decreases by a factor of ∼2. Pumping distributions do not strongly affect travel times if irrigation remains shallow, but increases in the deep pumping rate substantially reduce travel times. Simulation of advective-dispersive transport with sorption shows that deep groundwater is protected from contamination over a sustainable timeframe (>1000y) if the spatial distribution of Kd is uniform. However, if only low-K sediments sorb As, 30% of the aquifer is not protected. Results indicate that sustainable management strategies in the Bengal Basin should consider impacts of both physical and chemical heterogeneity, as well as their correlation. These insights from Bangladesh show that preferential flow strongly influences breakthrough of both conservative and reactive solutes even at large spatial scales, with implications for predicting water supply vulnerability in contaminated heterogeneous aquifers worldwide.