Abstract
In Chao Phraya River basin, the runoff at the middle basin (Nakhon Sawan station: C.2 point) is important for the prevention of lower basin floods. Through analyzing 1980 to 2011 runoff and rain gauge data and performing numerical calculations using a hydrological land surface model, this study will describe a condition that causes massive floods at the C.2 point. The main conclusions are the following: (1) In 2011, precipitation exceeding the average by about 40% caused naturalized runoff +125% (+29 billion m3) that in an average year. The massive 2011 flood would have been difficult to prevent even if the operation of the Bhumibol Dam and Sirikit Dam had been appropriate. (2) In 1980, 1995, and 2006, precipitation exceeding the average by about 10% caused naturalized runoff exceeding that of the average year by 50 to 75%. The runoff rate in the Chao Phraya River basin is about 20%, and characteristically a minor increase in precipitation results in a considerable amount of runoff. (3) There are natural flood years, which have higher than average precipitation that causes massive floods, and there are non-natural flood years, which have high precipitation but nomassive floods. In natural flood years, the precipitation in June, July, and August is higher than that in the average years, and the total water storage capacity is brought close to saturation in September. Due to this, in addition to base runoff, surface runoff increases. (4) The coefficient of the determination of observed runoff from August to October is 0.6481 for rainfall from June to August and 0.5276 for rainfall from August to October. Heavy rainfall in June, July and August has the effect of bringing the soil close to saturation, which is a necessary condition for massive flooding. Massive flooding results if this necessary condition is met and there is heavy rainfall in September and October. This finding is also supported by a high coefficient of determination of 0.7260 between rainfall in May, June, July, August, September, and October and naturalized runoff in August, September, and October.
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