Impacts of Log Export Restrictions in Southeast Asia on the Japanese Plywood Market: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Seen worldwide, many restrictive policies on timber harvests or log exports have been enforced in the major timber-exporting countries in the last two and half decades. This study aims to assess the impacts of the log export restrictions in the Southeast Asian countries on the Japanese plywood market, whose supply mainly comes from Southeast Asia and the domestic plywood industries. Both plywood industries process tropical raw logs. This econometric analysis reveals the followings; the log export restriction of Indonesia, along with its policy to promote the plywood industry, increased plywood exports to Japan, leaving the amount of log supply rather unchanged. Sabah's log export restriction and Sarawak's log export cutback policies decreased the amount of log exports from Southeast Asia to Japan significantly. Furthermore, the producer surplus of Southeast Asian plywood industries increased notably after the log export restriction of Indonesia. The consumer surplus in the Japanese plywood market increased accordingly. On the other hand, the producer surplus of the Japanese plywood industry decreased significantly as a result of Sabah's log export restriction and Sarawak's log cutback policies. Consequently, these log export restrictions led to large profits for the plywood industries of Southeast Asia, and that, enforced costs were levied on Japanese plywood industry.