Impacts of Human Development Index and Percentage of Total Population on Poverty using OLS and GWR models in Central Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Central Java province is one of the provinces with the highest number of poor people on the island of Java, with the number of poor people in 2020 increasing by 0.44 million people from the previous year. Poverty is caused by several factors, one of which is the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Total Population level. Each region has different characteristics from other regions. These differences in characteristics cause more specific spatial effects, namely spatial heterogeneity. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a statistical method that can analyze spatial heterogeneity by assigning different weights and models to each observation location. This study aims to determine whether the HDI variable and percentage of total population significantly impact the number of poor people in Central Java Province in 2020 without eliminating the spatial effect. There are three groupings of variables that affect the Number of Poor People for GWR with the Adaptive Kernel Bisquare weighting function and four groups for the Adaptive Kernel Tricube weighting function. The Key Performance Indicators (KPI) used are Mean , Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Based on these KPIs, the GWR model with the Adaptive Kernel Bisquare weighting function provides better results when compared to the OLS model.