Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa

Abstract

Many West African countries are plagued with poor electricity. The abundance of solar irradiance over the region makes solar energy an attractive solution to the problem, but there is a dearth of information on how the ongoing solar dimming and global warming may alter the solar energy over the region in the future at various global warming levels. This study investigates the impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation potential (PVP) over West Africa under four global warming levels (1.5 °C; 2.0 °C; 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C) and under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario. Fourteen regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analysed for the study. The capability of the simulations to reproduce the PVP and climate variables over West Africa is quantified. The results show that the CORDEX simulation ensemble captures the spatial distribution and the annual cycle of climate variables and PVP over West Africa, though with few biases. The simulation and observation indicate that PVP over West Africa ranges from 8% to 25% and the annual cycle is influenced by the seasonal variation of the monsoon system. The simulation ensemble projects a decrease of PVP over West Africa in the future and indicates that the magnitude of the decrease grows with warming levels. The maximum decrease in PVP projected over any country or zone in the region is less than 3.8% even for a warming level of 3.0 °C. Hence, the study suggests that ongoing global warming may have an influence on PVP over West Africa.