Abstract
An agroecological zone (AEZ) is a land resource mapping unit, defined in terms of climate, landform, and soils, and has a specific range of potentials and constraints for cropping (FAO, 1996). The shifting patterns of AEZs in China driven by future climatic changes were assessed by applying the agroecological zoning methodology proposed by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in this study. A data processing scheme was proposed in this study to reduce systematic errors in projected climate data using observed data from meteorological stations. AEZs in China of each of the four periods: 2011–2020, 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 were drawn. It is found that the future climate change will lead to significant local changes of AEZs in China and the overall pattern of AEZs in China is stable. The shifting patterns of AEZs will be characterized by northward expansion of humid AEZs to subhumid AEZs in south China, eastward expansion of arid AEZs to dry and moist semiarid AEZs in north China, and southward expansion of dry semiarid AEZs to arid AEZs in southwest China.
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