Impacts of ENSO on wintertime PM2.5 pollution over China during 2014–2021

Abstract

China has implemented a series of emission reduction policies since 2013, and the concentration of air pollutants has consequently decreased significantly. However, PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) pollution still occurs in China in relation to the interannual variations in meteorological conditions. Considering that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal modulating the interannual variation in the atmosphere–ocean system, in this study the authors investigate the variations in PM2.5 concentrations in four megacity clusters of China during the winter season associated with four individual ENSO events from 2014 to 2021. Results show that the wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and Fenwei Plain regions during El Niño years are higher than those during La Niña years, which can be explained by the anomalous southerly (northerly) winds during El Niño (La Niña) favoring PM2.5 accumulation (diffusion). In the Pearl River Delta region, PM2.5 concentrations decrease in El Niño relative to La Niña years owing to the enhanced water vapor flux and precipitation, removing more PM2.5 from the atmosphere. The comprehensive effects of wind and precipitation anomalies lead to the unpredictability of the impacts of ENSO on PM2.5 over the Yangtze River Delta region, which should be analyzed case by case.摘要2013年以来中国实施了一系列减排政策, 大气污染物浓度明显下降, 但由于气象条件的年际变化, 中国PM2.5 (空气动力学直径小于2.5 µm的颗粒物) 污染仍然存在. 厄尔尼诺–南方涛动 (ENSO) 是调节大气–海洋系统年际变化的最强信号. 本文研究了2014–2021年四次ENSO事件期间, 中国四个特大城市群冬季PM2.5浓度的变化. 结果表明, 在京津冀和汾渭平原地区, 由于厄尔尼诺 (拉尼娜) 期间的偏南风 (偏北风) 异常有利于 PM2.5 的积累 (扩散), 冬季PM2.5浓度在厄尔尼诺年高于拉尼娜年. 在珠三角地区, 由于厄尔尼诺冬季水汽通量和降水的增加有利于大气中PM2.5的湿清除, 冬季PM2.5浓度在厄尔尼诺年低于拉尼娜年. 在环流和降水异常的综合作用下, ENSO对长三角地区PM2.5浓度的影响难以预测, 应逐案分析.