Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production

Abstract

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice produc- tion of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice pro- duction, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Fi- nally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years be- cause the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China's rice production is less climate-sensitive.