Impacts of Climate Change on the Mean and Variance of Indica and Japonica Rice Yield in China

Abstract

The overall goal of this study was to examine the impacts of climate change on the mean and variance of rice yields in China by using historical climate and crop data. An econometric model was established to estimate Just–Pope stochastic production functions and identify the potential impacts of climate change on the mean and variance of rice yields by type, keeping other factors constant. Based on the estimated production functions, the contribution rate of climatic factors to rice yield was then assessed by conducting the growth accounting of yields over the past 30 years. The results showed that both the mean rice yield and the yield variability were influenced by changes in the mean climate conditions and climatic variance. In the future, the impacts of climate change on rice yields will depend on local regions’ present climatic conditions. The results have implications for improving the adaptation capacity of rice production.