Impacts of climate change on runoff in the Yellow River, China

Abstract

This research investigated the temporal variability of water resources and the response of water resources to seasonal frozen soil, snow cover, and climate elements for the high, cold area at the headwaters of the upper Yellow River in western China. Data analyzed were a 49‐year monthly data series of runoff, temperature, and precipitation collected from 1959 to 2007; snow‐cover monitoring data collected from 2000 to 2011; and permafrost monitoring data from two control hydrometrical stations and one weather station. Study methods were the peak pattern analytical method, the rate change of wetness–dryness analytical method, the Mann‐Kendall Trend Test, and grey relational analysis. The Mann‐Kendall test was used to identify trends and change points in the annual runoff series. The results show obvious historical characteristics for river runoff, with the change points in years 1961, 1999, and 2005, and find that the runoff series showed a declining tendency from 2002 to 2006. After 1986, the maximum seasonal frozen soil depth declined, which exacerbated the total annual runoff reduction. The annual decrease in temperature since 2005 and the decrease in annual snow‐cover area and precipitation in 2009 and 2010 caused water scarcity in 2011 and may cause water scarcity in the subsequent two to five years, according to the historical characteristics of Yellow River runoff.