Abstract
The diminishing spring discharge in the Middle Mountain Zone (MMZ) in Nepal is a matter of concern because it directly affects the livelihoods of low-income farmers in the region. Therefore, understanding the impacts of changes in climate and land-use patterns on water demand and availability is crucial. We investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and environmental flow, and the demand for spring-fed river water for irrigation using the limited meteorological data available for the Babai River Basin, Nepal. SWAT and CROPWAT8.0 were used to respectively calculate present and future streamflow and irrigation water demand. Three general circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for the periods of 2020–2044, 2045–2069, and 2070–2099 were used to investigate the impact of climate change. Results indicate that the catchment is likely to experience an increase in rainfall and temperature in the future. The impact of the increment in rainfall and rise in temperature are replicated in the annual river flow that is anticipated to increase by 24–37%, to the historical data of 1991–2014. Despite this increase, projections show that the Babai River Basin will remain a water deficit basin from January to May in future decades.
Highlights
Climate has been changing continuously over millennia
The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated on a monthly time scale using SUFI-2 within SWATCUP
It was concluded that the top three sensitive parameters to simulate streamflow in the Babai River watershed are initial SCS CN II value (CN2), base flow alpha-factor (ALPHA_BF), and GWQMN.gw
Summary
Climate has been changing continuously over millennia. It passes through several cool and warm periods and each lasts for thousands of years. In the past 100 years, the earth’s temperature has risen by more than 1 ◦ F This may not seem like much of an increase, but the impact of this small change is still very significant. This is why climate change is a matter of great concern to several stakeholders inside and outside academia. Research organizations such as IPCC, EPA, USGCRP, NOAA, etc., lead the study on climate change. Climate change is expected to alter temperature and precipitation patterns all around the world, and these alterations will affect river discharge, seasonal and local water availability, and water supply [1]. In Asia, the average temperature is expected to rise by 1.8–3.9 ◦ C and precipitation by 1–12% by the end of the century [2]
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