Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin

Meilin Wang,Xiaowei Gao,Yaqi Shao,Haiming Yan,Lijun Wang,Peibin Liu,Qun’Ou Jiang,Ling Xiao

doi:10.3390/land9090291

Meilin Wang, Xiaowei Gao + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/land9090291

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Abstract

Guishui River Basin in northwestern Beijing has ecological significance and will be one of the venues of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympic Games in 2022. However, accelerating climate change and human disturbance in recent decades has posed an increasing challenge to the sustainable use of water in the basin. This study simulated the runoff of the Guishui River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to reveal the spatio-temporal variations of runoff in the basin and the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff changes. The results showed that annual runoff from 2004 to 2018 was relatively small, with an uneven intra-annual runoff distribution. The seasonal trends in runoff showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter while an increasing trend in summer and autumn. There was a first increasing and then decreasing trend of average annual runoff depth from northwest to southeast in the study area. In addition, the contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff of the Guishui River Basin were 60% and 40%, respectively, but with opposite effects. The results can contribute to the rational utilization of water resources in the Guishui River Basin.

Highlights

Water resources are key to human survival and development and form an integral component of ecosystems
2006–2011 as the base and thenannual analyzed the impact of climate change so so thisthis study used thethe average value of runoff representing the the runoff level during oneone period
Since agriculture in the Guishui River Basin has very high water demands, Firstly, since agriculture in the Guishui River Basin has very high water demands, the the implementation of water-saving irrigation technology can play a decisive role in the reduction of implementation of water-saving irrigation technology can play a decisive role in the reduction of water use [44]

Summary

Introduction

Water resources are key to human survival and development and form an integral component of ecosystems. Water resources at a global scale are facing increasing threats due to rapid economic development, population growth, and urban expansion [1]. Climate change has changed the temporal and spatial distribution of global precipitation, temperature and other meteorological elements, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts [2]. It is predicted that by 2025, 3 billion people will have insufficient access to potable water, and 40 countries and regions will be water stressed [3]. As the world’s most populous country, hosts approximately. China faces long-term challenges related to water deficits and an uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources [4,5,6]. Water stress in China has been exacerbated by the deterioration of the ecological environment, and by the use of outdated and water inefficiency

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