Abstract
Under the joint effects resulted from different changes of climate and land-use regimes, spatial-temporal variations of hydrological processes took place in certain principles. Identifying the impact of changes in individual land-use types/climatic factors on hydrological processes is significant for water management and sustainability of watersheds. In this study, seven simulation scenarios were developed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to distinguish the impacts of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological processes in the Amur River Basin (ARB) for four periods of 1980–1990, 1991–1999, 2000–2006, and 2007–2013, respectively. Based on the multi-period simulation scenario data, partial least squares regression and ridge regression analyses were performed to further evaluate the effects of changes in individual land-use types/climatic factors on hydrologic components. The results suggested that summer precipitation and summer average temperature were the dominant climatic factors, and crops and wetlands were the principal land-use types contributing to the hydrological responses. In addition, the drastic changes in crop and wetland areas and a clear decline in summer precipitation between the periods of 1991–1999 and 2000–2006 may account for the highest-intensity impacts of climate and land-use changes on the runoff at the outlet (−31.38% and 16.17%, respectively) during the four periods.
Highlights
Anthropogenic activities and climate changes are two major factors that directly affect hydrological processes [1,2,3]
The model performance for the different hydrological variables indicated that the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was successfully applied to the Amur River Basin (ARB) and was suitable for the analysis of hydrological processes under climate changes and human activities
The results demonstrate that the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoffofat the changes simulated in this study be spring lower than the actual theland-use hydrometric stations played a key rolemight in the snowmelt andconditions
Summary
Anthropogenic activities and climate changes are two major factors that directly affect hydrological processes [1,2,3]. Global changes, such as the redistribution of precipitation, global warming, and accelerated urbanization [4,5,6], have altered the hydrological cycle and runoff generation patterns, had significant impacts on the spatial and temporal distributions of water [7], and led to major challenges in the management and protection of water resources [8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. Driven by the different policies, regional characteristics, and economic development statuses in China, Russia, and Mongolia, the
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