Abstract

Abstract The effect of climate change and human activities on water resources, glaciers, and land use/cover has been widely studied. The Shiyang River Basin is an important natural reserve in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province. Global warming and human activities have led to extreme ecological changes in this region. Exploring the response of the ecological environment of the Shiyang River Basin to a changing climate is important for studying the sustainable development of the fragile ecological environment in this basin. The meteorological data for this study was obtained from the China Meteorological Data Service Center, and the average temperature and precipitation data were acquired from four meteorological stations. By investigating the changes in the watershed climate and social environment in the Shiyang River Basin, the corresponding changes in glacial and surface water resources, landscape patterns, and natural and anthropogenic factors in the basin under changing environment were analysed. The results show that the temperature in different seasons has increased in the past 60 years, and the inclination rate of air temperature was 0.56 °C/10a. In addition, precipitation increased slightly at 0.737 mm/10a. Natural conditions and climate change have reduced the supply of glacial meltwater in the Qilian Mountains, and the regulation of glacial snow in downstream rivers is poor. The distribution of the water production rate in each river was similar to that of precipitation. The runoff modulus of the deep mountain area was greater than that of the shallow mountainous area. The western region is larger than the eastern region, and the rationalisation of the land use structure in the basin has a decisive effect on optimising the landscape pattern of the basin. The spatial evolution of the vegetation cover in the basin is generally stable; under the combined action of climate change and human activities, downstream water resources are reducing, and landscape vegetation is shifting to a high risk in the Shiyang River Basin. Among the influencing factors, anthropogenic factors play a dominant role in the runoff variation in this basin. Climate warming and unregulated human activities are the main causes of regional environmental deterioration. The study findings can contribute to understanding the coupling relationship between the natural and ecological evolution process of the inland river basin and human activities in the arid zone. Further, exploring the change trend of the ecological environment of the Shiyang River Basin can help determine the human adaptation countermeasures to mitigate ecological deterioration and ensure sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas.

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