Impact on food productivity by fossil fuel independence – A case study of a Swedish small-scale integrated organic farm

Abstract

The large-scale industrial agriculture that provides the majority of food at present is dependent upon fossil fuels in the form of tractor fuel, mineral fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation. Yet, the age of cheap and abundant fossil fuels will likely come to an end within the coming decades. In this case study, the productivity of a small-scale farm (8 ha arable land, 5.5 ha meadow, 3.5 ha pasture and 18 ha forest) independent on fossil fuels by using organic methods and draught horse power was investigated. The aim was to quantify its productivity when the animal composition and possible alternatives to tractive power were varied. After an analysis of possible solutions, three scenarios for tractive power were selected: draught horse power, diesel tractor, and combination of draught horse power and rapeseed oil fueled tractor. A model that calculates the amount of food available at the farm in terms of meat, milk egg, and crops, converts it into energy units and calculates how many people can be supplied from the farm was developed. The most reasonable of the scenarios studied was when draught horse power was combined with tractor (and combine harvester) driven on locally produced rapeseed oil. Then the farm will have access to all advantages with the tractor and harvester, e.g., timeliness in harvest and lifting heavy loads, and the renewability and efficiency of draught horse power on smaller fields, and lighter operations. This system was able to support between 66 and 82 persons depending on crop yields, milk yields, meat production, fuel demand for the tractor, and availability of forest grazing. Most likely the production capacity lands on ability to support approximately 68–70 persons, and the farm may require fossil fuels to support more than 80 persons. If all farmland globally was to be operated with the same productivity, this would be enough for supplying the global population with food at present.